India Meteorological Department Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon Rains for Telangana

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has dampened expectations for Telangana's monsoon prospects, issuing a second-stage long-range forecast that anticipates below-normal rainfall across the South Peninsular region, including the state.

The forecast, released on Friday, has sparked concerns about the reliability of the upcoming Southwest Monsoon season. The IMD estimates seasonal rainfall will reach only 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing the country and particularly southern states in the below-normal category. Additionally, there is a 45% probability that seasonal rainfall could remain below 94% of the LPA.

The meteorological department has cautioned that monsoon advancement may proceed at a slower pace than historically observed. Typically, monsoon activity gains strength during the initial half of June, but current projections suggest a delayed onset for Telangana. The IMD anticipates June precipitation to fall below the 92% threshold, indicating a sluggish start to the monsoon season.

Complicating the outlook further, the IMD warns that certain isolated pockets of Telangana may experience an above-average number of heatwave days during June, even as monsoon systems begin to establish themselves.

Weather conditions in the Indian Ocean present another factor influencing the forecast. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently remains in a neutral phase with no discernible indicators of transitioning toward a positive phase. Earlier optimism among meteorologists about the IOD strengthening monsoon winds and boosting rainfall across the Indian subcontinent has now faded. While a positive IOD could potentially offset certain effects of the developing El Niño phenomenon, existing atmospheric and oceanic conditions offer no evidence of such a shift materializing.

The IMD will provide a more granular rainfall forecast for July during the final week of June. In the interim, weather monitoring agencies will maintain surveillance over atmospheric and oceanic conditions. State authorities, including the Telangana State Development Planning Society (TSDPS), are preparing to closely observe rainfall distribution patterns across the state's districts. Officials emphasise that sustained monitoring will enable better assessment of weather condition impacts, as evolving patterns could significantly affect how rainfall is distributed throughout Telangana during the monsoon season.